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Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?

Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?

Many are afraid of volatility on the oil market. Now prices very quickly recoil to 30 dollars per barrel, now they push the 80 dollar mark. Total chaos dominates forecasts by leading Western analysts. Some predict prices at 100, while others their forthcoming collapse.

Who is right?

NESF has also decided to ask the one-billion-dollar question: how much oil will cost and what factors influence oil prices in reality.

From the new research paper you will learn:

  • What has a stronger influence on prices: the physical oil market or speculative factors

    • Which of them should be paid maximum attention to
  • How the OPEC+ deal works

    • Why the Saudis needed it
    • Whether the deal has achieved its aim of reducing oil stores
    • How speculators react to news about the deal
  • Demand for oil and petroleum products

    • Demand dynamics and regional structure
    • How demand for oil in a country should be counted and what pitfalls exist here
    • Analysis of the domestic market in the US and in China, the largest users of oil
  • Difficulties of statistical analysis

    • Why everyone evaluates the current situation on the global market differently
  • What one is to expect from America

    • How oil production in the US will change and how this will affect global prices
    • Manipulation of WTI prices
  • Saudi Arabia’s strategies

  • Russia’s strategies

    • Whether there should be withdrawal from the OPEC+ deal
    • What prices should one get ready for
  • A medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report: 

Introduction. Factors affecting oil market pricing 4
Stored oil reserves: formal criterion of achieving OPEC+ deal objective 10
Demand for oil: global trend or statistical speculation? 18
Current demand data and historic changes in forecasts. Structure of demand for petroleum products: market expectations 18
What country demand for oil is: difference in calculation methodology shown using examples of US and Chinese oil balances 23
Refining margins as missing factor in demand/supply models 31
Supply side: difference in methodology or manipulation of market? 38
US shale oil production as a result of fashion for petrodollars. Evaluation of american independent operators’ viability 42
Formal contribution of cartel to OPEC+ deal 47
Change of maximum production capacity in OPEC countries 55
OPEC export policy: who is the real market maker? 58
Dynamics of export from OPEC & non-OPEC countries: how oil supply to physical market changed 58
Saudi Arabia’s invariably leading role on oil market 65
Balances aside: mechanisms of real fight for key markets 72
Speculators in market: how critical situation is 79
Medium-term forecast of developments. What is in store for OPEC+ deal? 85
Appendix 1: profit/loss from storing oil in tankers under circumstances of contango in 2015-2017 89
Appendix 2: US crude oil export and import by locations 90
Appendix 3: structure of crude oil import into China 92
Appendix 4: classification of crudes by quality 93
Unit conversion table 95
Abbreviations 96
Date of release: July 27, 2018

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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