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Main page > Products > The fuel and energy complex of Russia - Series of analytical reports > Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?
Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?
Many are afraid of volatility on the oil market. Now prices very quickly recoil to 30 dollars per barrel, now they push the 80 dollar mark. Total chaos dominates forecasts by leading Western analysts. Some predict prices at 100, while others their forthcoming collapse.
Who is right?
NESF has also decided to ask the one-billion-dollar question: how much oil will cost and what factors influence oil prices in reality.
From the new research paper you will learn:
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What has a stronger influence on prices: the physical oil market or speculative factors
- Which of them should be paid maximum attention to
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How the OPEC+ deal works
- Why the Saudis needed it
- Whether the deal has achieved its aim of reducing oil stores
- How speculators react to news about the deal
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Demand for oil and petroleum products
- Demand dynamics and regional structure
- How demand for oil in a country should be counted and what pitfalls exist here
- Analysis of the domestic market in the US and in China, the largest users of oil
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Difficulties of statistical analysis
- Why everyone evaluates the current situation on the global market differently
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What one is to expect from America
- How oil production in the US will change and how this will affect global prices
- Manipulation of WTI prices
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Saudi Arabia’s strategies
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Russia’s strategies
- Whether there should be withdrawal from the OPEC+ deal
- What prices should one get ready for
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A medium-term forecast of developments
Contents of the report:
| Introduction. Factors affecting oil market pricing | 4 |
| Stored oil reserves: formal criterion of achieving OPEC+ deal objective | 10 |
| Demand for oil: global trend or statistical speculation? | 18 |
| Current demand data and historic changes in forecasts. Structure of demand for petroleum products: market expectations | 18 |
| What country demand for oil is: difference in calculation methodology shown using examples of US and Chinese oil balances | 23 |
| Refining margins as missing factor in demand/supply models | 31 |
| Supply side: difference in methodology or manipulation of market? | 38 |
| US shale oil production as a result of fashion for petrodollars. Evaluation of american independent operators’ viability | 42 |
| Formal contribution of cartel to OPEC+ deal | 47 |
| Change of maximum production capacity in OPEC countries | 55 |
| OPEC export policy: who is the real market maker? | 58 |
| Dynamics of export from OPEC & non-OPEC countries: how oil supply to physical market changed | 58 |
| Saudi Arabia’s invariably leading role on oil market | 65 |
| Balances aside: mechanisms of real fight for key markets | 72 |
| Speculators in market: how critical situation is | 79 |
| Medium-term forecast of developments. What is in store for OPEC+ deal? | 85 |
| Appendix 1: profit/loss from storing oil in tankers under circumstances of contango in 2015-2017 | 89 |
| Appendix 2: US crude oil export and import by locations | 90 |
| Appendix 3: structure of crude oil import into China | 92 |
| Appendix 4: classification of crudes by quality | 93 |
| Unit conversion table | 95 |
| Abbreviations | 96 |
| Date of release: | July 27, 2018 |
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If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
Other issues:
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook
- Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
- New Logistics of Russian Oil Business
- Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
- Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
- Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
- Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
- Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
- Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
- Russian Oil Sector under Sanctions Pressure: Lessons of Survival
- Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East
- Green Agenda in Russia in New Political Epoch
- Hydrogen Agenda in Russia during Economic War with West
- Russian Oil Exports: from Covid-induced Demand Collapse to Sanctions War
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2021, 2022 outlook
- Gazprom on Pricing Crest. Current Situation in European Gas Market
- Oil Tax Policy: Squeezing Last or Chance to Restart Industry?
- Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Prospects for Russian Suppliers, Russia’s Potential Response
- The Arctic: Breakthrough Territory or White Hole?
- Hydrocarbon Rush to East: Current Status, Medium-term Prospects
- Hydrogen as New Energy Hope
- Russian Oil Production and Export in Time of Low Prices and OPEC+
- State Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2021 and Prospects 2022
- Gazprom: Life after Major Construction Projects
- The Arctic: a new state priority
- Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Sector: Choosing Priorities
- Import Substitution in Oil and Gas Industry: Myths and Reality
- Energy Transition and ‘Green Agenda’ in Russia: Fashion or Hard Reality?
- Druzhba Pipeline Accident: Key Implications
- New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
- Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
- Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
- Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
- Digitisation and Its Implications for Oil and Gas: Myths and Possible Reality
- Services and Mechanical Engineering for Oil and Gas: Are Industry’s Foundations Secure?
- Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued
- Arctic: Soviet-type Gigantomania or Breakthrough Project?
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019
- Gazprom on Path to New Reality
- Looking for Best Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas: Fiscal Experiments Continued
- Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector
- New government structure and FES: Reformatting the state system administrating the sector
- Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?
- Sanctions Against Russian Oil and Gas: Coil Tightening
- American Shale: Life in Trump Era
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2017, prospects for 2018
- Gazprom in Internal, External Gas Markets: How to Share Gas ‘Pie’
- Russian Oil & Gas in 2025: Picture of Future
- Fiscal Innovations: from Tax Manoeuvre to New Experiments
- Petrochemistry: Rocky Road to Advanced Processing
- World LNG market: Russia, its main competitors
- Three years under sanctions: their influence on Russia’s fuel and energy sector
- Asia market: potential of Russian oil and gas exports to the East
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
- Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
- The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
- Main regulators of oil and gas battles
- Middle East: an earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons
- Life under sanctions or is there light at the end of the import substitution tunnel
- Forgotten shale: development of unconventional natural gas production, potential of North American gas exports
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2015, prospects for 2016
- Gazprom: the life in the epoch of sanctions, the turn towards the East, growing domestic competition
- The shale oil revolution in the USA, its influence on the industry
- Natural gas motor fuel: will the balance on the domestic market really change?
- Tax maneuver: fiscal policy in the oil and gas sector, prospects of changes
- Non-residents in Russia: complexity of conflict, possibilities
- The Asian gas market: is there room for Russia?
- Russian oil and gas sector under sanctions: main threats to the sector
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2014, prospects for 2015
- Gazprom: breakout strategy
- State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: struggle continues
- Managing oil and gas sector: decision-making
- Dragon hunting: Russia fighting its way to oriental markets
- Different approaches towards Russian oil industry: search for strategic development vector
- Russia on the LNG market: is there response to old and new competitors?
- State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2013, prospects for 2014
- Gazprom during Putin`s latest tenure
- Oil refining: huge plans
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square
- Search for New Taxation of Russian Oil and Gas Industry
- Eastern energy policy of Russia
- Development of offshore projects: words or deeds?
- Russia in struggle for European gas market
- State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2012, prospects for 2013
- Gazprom in turbulence
- Domestic market of energy sources
- Central Asia and Caspian region: struggle becoming tougher
- Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy
- New system of managing oil and gas industry
- Arctic and other offshore projects in Russia
- Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine
- State regulation in the oil and gas sector in 2011 and prospects for 2012
- The Present and Future of Gazprom
- State management in the oil and gas sector: Last autumn of current political cycle
- Central Asia and Caspian Region: Problems of Development and Transportation of Hydrocarbons
- Export Strategy of Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector
- Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector
- New Legal and Fiscal Procedures in the Oil and Gas Industry
- Prospects of Third Legislative Package Implementation, Future of European Gas Market
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2010, Outlooks for 2011
- Gazprom after Crisis: What Dreams May Come
- Nonresidents in the Russian Oil and Gas Sector: New Window of Opportunity?
- State System of Administrating the Oil and Gas Sector
- Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
- Anti-Crisis Policy in the Oil and Gas Sector And Its Consequences
- Western and Eastern Vectors of the Russian Oil and Gas Sector Development
- “Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2009 and Outlooks for 2010
- Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects
- Emergence of a Putin-sponsored Oil and Gas Aristocracy: Clans at War for Property
- Offshore Wars and Distribution of New Oil and Gas Blocks
- Russian gas export routes: pipes and gas carriers
- State oil and gas sector management system: first year in new format
- New Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Industry
- Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009
- Domestic Market of Energy Resources: Current State and Future Prospects
- Global Market of Energy Resources: Main Development Trends and the Role of Russian Companies
- Nationalisation and Privatisation: Two Industry Development Tendencies
- War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia
- New Configuration of Political Power and the Oil and Gas Industry Management System
- Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?
- Statutory Framework of the Oil and Gas Industry
- Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008
- The Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES and the New Gas and Electricity Pricing Patterns
- Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors
- The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project
- The Big Trade: Russian Companies Competing for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies Seeking to Enter Upstream Projects
- Gazprom: are there Limits to the Growth?
- Pipeline Wars and New Routes of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia
- Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook
The year 2023 posed a serious challenge to the Russian oil and gas sector that was subjected to extremely tough sanctions that could have led to collapse in exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The oil industry and corresponding regulatory mechanisms were tested throughout the year. The state, being in dire need of financial resources, had to save the chicken that lays golden eggs. How well is it coping with this task?Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
The year 2023 saw an even larger drop in Russian exports of pipeline gas to Europe. In the past two years, Gazprom failed to export some 120 bcm of natural gas, and these quantities are now locked up in Russia. Another difficult case concerns extension of the current gas transit contract with Ukraine, which expires at the end of 2024. Gazprom is already looking for new opportunities.New Logistics of Russian Oil Business
When the G7 and the EU as of 5 December 2022 imposed an embargo on oil from Russia and the price cap mechanism that was later complemented with the same measures against petroleum products, Western analysts confidently predicted inevitable collapse in Russian exports by at least one-third. The new report explains in detail how the mechanism of Russian oil transport and sales works and whether Western companies remain in this business.Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
The Energy Strategy to 2050 was originally supposed to be approved before 15 September 2022, yet it was never adopted even as of November 2023. Moreover, not even a draft of the ES 2050 has been published yet. On the one hand, this vividly demonstrates the attitude to strategic documents on energy. It turns out that the industry on the whole copes with the unprecedented pressure of sanctions even without official strategies. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas has been facing really serious challenges that cannot be taken lightly. And immediate problems are a reflection of long-term threats too.Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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