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Main page > Products > The fuel and energy complex of Russia - Series of analytical reports > Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine
Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine
The dénouement of the gas transit play on the post-Soviet area in nearing.
Gazprom’s policy on bringing gas prices for former Soviet republics to the European level and implementation of projects on bypassing traditional transit states for Russian natural gas made Belarus agree to give away its pipeline system to Gazprom. Ukraine is about to make the same decision.
However, political cycles in Russia and Ukraine currently impose certain restrictions on the sides.
This is especially noticeable in the behavior of Ukrainian ruling elites that vitally need a confident win at the parliamentary elections after Yulia Timoshenko’s imprisonment. The Party of Regions will be trying to ensure it at any cost. Meanwhile, the topic of the gas transportation system is still overly politicized in Ukraine.
A new report elaborates on the following issues:
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Current condition of exports and transit of Russian natural gas to Europe
- The current and future amount of transit
- Existing contracts and variants of their prolongation
- The future level of demand for Russian gas in Europe
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Gazprom seizes the “Belarusian fortress”
- Analyzing the technology of success: how Gazprom was pursuing its objective
- Analysis of new contracts with Belarus and Russian gas prospects on the Belarusian market
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Ukrainian transit and Ukrainian gas market
- Importance of the Ukrainian route of supplies and the standing of the Ukrainian domestic gas market
- Contract system and Kharkov agreements
- The current condition of the Ukrainian GTS
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Ukrainian GTS is in the grip
- Arguments of Russia and counterarguments of Ukraine
- Kiev’s attempts to attract Brussels to the dialogue
- Dilemma: joint venture or gas transportation consortium
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Risks and possibilities of Russian policies on organizing gas transit
- Is the Belarusian gas scenario feasible for Ukraine?
The contents of the report:
| Introduction | 3 |
| Chapter 1. Exports and transit of natural gas from Russia to Europe | 4 |
| 1.1. Volume of gas exports | 4 |
| 1.2. Outside Former Soviet States: Between Prices Linked To Oil And Take-Or-Pay Principle | 5 |
| 1.3 Supplies to CIS and Baltic states | 8 |
| 1.4. Existing routes of gas deliveries from Russia to Europe | 10 |
| Chapter 2. Settling Belarusian case | 13 |
| 2.1. Beltransgaz and construction of Yamal-Europe gas pipeline | 13 |
| 2.2. Contract for 2007 to 2011 | 17 |
| 2.3. Transit conflict in 2010 | 19 |
| 2.4. Seizure of Beltransgaz, New System of Relations | 20 |
| 2.5. Gas supplies and transit through Belarus in 2012 to 2014 | 21 |
| Chapter 3. Ukrainian transit and gas market | 23 |
| 3.1. Major market | 23 |
| 3.2. Transit monopoly | 27 |
| 3.3. Contract system and its consequences | 32 |
| Chapter 4. Gas grips for Yanukovich | 35 |
| 4.1. North European gas pipeline | 35 |
| 4.2. South Stream | 39 |
| 4.3. Single Economic Space and joint enterprises | 41 |
| 4.4 Behavior of Ukrainian authorities | 44 |
| Chapter 5. Forecast. Is Belarusian gas scenario possible for Ukraine | 49 |
| 5.1. Contradictions Inside Ukrainian Authorities, Political Struggle | 49 |
| 5.2. Russia Increases Pressure: Reasons And Consequences | 50 |
| 5.3. Value of Ukraine’s GTS | 52 |
| Date of issue: | March 13, 2012 |
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If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
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- Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
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- Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
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- Russian Oil Sector under Sanctions Pressure: Lessons of Survival
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- Russian Oil Exports: from Covid-induced Demand Collapse to Sanctions War
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- Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
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- Digitisation and Its Implications for Oil and Gas: Myths and Possible Reality
- Services and Mechanical Engineering for Oil and Gas: Are Industry’s Foundations Secure?
- Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas: Pressure Continued
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- Results of Pivot to the East in Oil and Gas Sector
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- Sanctions Against Russian Oil and Gas: Coil Tightening
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- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2017, prospects for 2018
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- The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
- Main regulators of oil and gas battles
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- Life under sanctions or is there light at the end of the import substitution tunnel
- Forgotten shale: development of unconventional natural gas production, potential of North American gas exports
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2015, prospects for 2016
- Gazprom: the life in the epoch of sanctions, the turn towards the East, growing domestic competition
- The shale oil revolution in the USA, its influence on the industry
- Natural gas motor fuel: will the balance on the domestic market really change?
- Tax maneuver: fiscal policy in the oil and gas sector, prospects of changes
- Non-residents in Russia: complexity of conflict, possibilities
- The Asian gas market: is there room for Russia?
- Russian oil and gas sector under sanctions: main threats to the sector
- State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2014, prospects for 2015
- Gazprom: breakout strategy
- State companies vs. private firms: two projects for the sector
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: struggle continues
- Managing oil and gas sector: decision-making
- Dragon hunting: Russia fighting its way to oriental markets
- Different approaches towards Russian oil industry: search for strategic development vector
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- State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2013, prospects for 2014
- Gazprom during Putin`s latest tenure
- Oil refining: huge plans
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square
- Search for New Taxation of Russian Oil and Gas Industry
- Eastern energy policy of Russia
- Development of offshore projects: words or deeds?
- Russia in struggle for European gas market
- State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2012, prospects for 2013
- Gazprom in turbulence
- Domestic market of energy sources
- Central Asia and Caspian region: struggle becoming tougher
- Vladimir Putin’s Energy Strategy
- New system of managing oil and gas industry
- Arctic and other offshore projects in Russia
- Old and new routes of Russian gas to Europe: Belarusian scenario for Ukraine
- State regulation in the oil and gas sector in 2011 and prospects for 2012
- The Present and Future of Gazprom
- State management in the oil and gas sector: Last autumn of current political cycle
- Central Asia and Caspian Region: Problems of Development and Transportation of Hydrocarbons
- Export Strategy of Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector
- Rearrangement of Property in the Oil and Gas Sector
- New Legal and Fiscal Procedures in the Oil and Gas Industry
- Prospects of Third Legislative Package Implementation, Future of European Gas Market
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2010, Outlooks for 2011
- Gazprom after Crisis: What Dreams May Come
- Nonresidents in the Russian Oil and Gas Sector: New Window of Opportunity?
- State System of Administrating the Oil and Gas Sector
- Gas Pipeline Wars in Europe and Central Asia
- Anti-Crisis Policy in the Oil and Gas Sector And Its Consequences
- Western and Eastern Vectors of the Russian Oil and Gas Sector Development
- “Ukrainian Front” and Problem of Gas Supplies to Europe
- State Regulation of the Oil and Gas Sector in 2009 and Outlooks for 2010
- Gazprom: Plans, Risks, Prospects
- Emergence of a Putin-sponsored Oil and Gas Aristocracy: Clans at War for Property
- Offshore Wars and Distribution of New Oil and Gas Blocks
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- State oil and gas sector management system: first year in new format
- New Tax Treatment of Oil and Gas Industry
- Central Asia and the Caspian Sea: a Trap or Salvation?
- Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009
- Domestic Market of Energy Resources: Current State and Future Prospects
- Global Market of Energy Resources: Main Development Trends and the Role of Russian Companies
- Nationalisation and Privatisation: Two Industry Development Tendencies
- War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia
- New Configuration of Political Power and the Oil and Gas Industry Management System
- Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?
- Statutory Framework of the Oil and Gas Industry
- Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008
- The Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES and the New Gas and Electricity Pricing Patterns
- Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors
- The Oil and Gas Industry and the Putin’s Energy Project
- The Big Trade: Russian Companies Competing for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies Seeking to Enter Upstream Projects
- Gazprom: are there Limits to the Growth?
- Pipeline Wars and New Routes of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia
- Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook
The year 2023 posed a serious challenge to the Russian oil and gas sector that was subjected to extremely tough sanctions that could have led to collapse in exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The oil industry and corresponding regulatory mechanisms were tested throughout the year. The state, being in dire need of financial resources, had to save the chicken that lays golden eggs. How well is it coping with this task?Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
The year 2023 saw an even larger drop in Russian exports of pipeline gas to Europe. In the past two years, Gazprom failed to export some 120 bcm of natural gas, and these quantities are now locked up in Russia. Another difficult case concerns extension of the current gas transit contract with Ukraine, which expires at the end of 2024. Gazprom is already looking for new opportunities.New Logistics of Russian Oil Business
When the G7 and the EU as of 5 December 2022 imposed an embargo on oil from Russia and the price cap mechanism that was later complemented with the same measures against petroleum products, Western analysts confidently predicted inevitable collapse in Russian exports by at least one-third. The new report explains in detail how the mechanism of Russian oil transport and sales works and whether Western companies remain in this business.Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
The Energy Strategy to 2050 was originally supposed to be approved before 15 September 2022, yet it was never adopted even as of November 2023. Moreover, not even a draft of the ES 2050 has been published yet. On the one hand, this vividly demonstrates the attitude to strategic documents on energy. It turns out that the industry on the whole copes with the unprecedented pressure of sanctions even without official strategies. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas has been facing really serious challenges that cannot be taken lightly. And immediate problems are a reflection of long-term threats too.Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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