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Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies

Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies

2006 brought complex results. Some bought up assets, obtained license and searched for aims to be delivered an attacks inside the country and abroad. Others deliberated how to defend themselves. One may consider all these things as training before 2007 year that will be significant to the sector.

Shady participants of the electoral trace are finishing the process of fund rising. That means that property redistribution is going at full drive.  The sector may be seriously renewed facing presidentional elections.

Industrial tasks are no more priority in the development strategy of the Russian companies. The key issue now is tactics of the political process participation. This may adversely affect the perspectives of oil-and-gaz production, but this doesn’t worry anyone in comparison with the problem-2008. The main task is to outlast transformation of the political system. Corporations will start thinking over new investments only after that. 

The following topics are closely analyzed in the report:

  • State companies:
    how they make preparations to the final fight

    • «Gazprom» and «Rosneft» are the major actors of mergers and acquisitions in Russia.
      They are supervised by different nomenclature and political groups and they are the main aggressors. The outcome of the «successor race» may ultimately depend on their ability to grow their  capitalization
    • «Zarubezhneft»: «reserve regiment».
      The company is in the shadow now, but will «fire» in 2007 after returning to Upstream-projects in the territory of Russia
    • «Transneft» as a keeper and collector of transport asset
      Fight strategy against the Caspian pipeline syndicate and merger with «Transneftproduct». The building of new pipelines and the problem of their possible competition. North-Baltic  attack over Byelorussia and the Ukraine. The perspectives of VSTO as a rival of the European export direction
  • Main intrigue of the companies’ development:
    will Putin venture to unite them of the latter half of 2007

      This is the only way with which he may create the most valuable corporation all over the world. It would become a good ground for him to go on his political and economic carrier on the international level as a global energy actor. Along with that he doesn’t know how to put this into practice without breaking his system of checks and balances among various nomenclature groups.
  • Private gas companies are waiting for merger

      Despite permanent declarations about the ability of self-supporting gaz producers to provide growth of «blue-sky fuel» production, their number reduces thick and fast. «Gazprom» acquires assets. It leaves alive only those who may bring benefits to it. For example, this gives the possibility do diversify price strategies on the internal gaz market. But decline of «Gazprom`s» production and election upcoming make it not beat around the bush.
  • Private oil companies

      All of them are minimizing risks in different ways.
    • «Surgutneftegaz» is on the defensive from «Rosneft» and is trying to entangle a scheme of corporative holding. Moreover, its political resources let it counterattack
    • TNK-BP is anxious about the partners in order to sell its assets correctly
    • LUKOIL doesn’t know with whom to make friends – either with «Gazprom» or «Rosneft» and it longs to integrate with Conoco.All the essential development plans are being transferred to the Eastern Europe and other international projects
    • Yukos is anxious about the possibility for its holders to receive any finances from Yukos`s liquidation
    • Bashkirian and Tatar oil and petrochemical assets are waiting for widescale fight for them
  • Scenarios of oil-and-gas development before presidential elections and after them

      – according to the possible results of the «successor race»

 

The content of the report:

Introduction. Acquisition Strategy and Survival Strategy. No Other Option2
General Results of 2006 for the Industry 4
Gazprom: Acquire, Exchange, Sell Gas Only to Those, who Pay Well9
Rosneft: the Oil Industry Twin of Gazprom22
Transneft: the Future Transport Department of the Unified Energy Corporation 29
Independent Gas Producers in Line for Takeover 32
LUKOIL: Wavering between Two Monsters 34
Surgutneftegaz: the Third Center of Political Force? 39
TNK-BP: Voluntary Oil & Gas Boutique De Luxe43
RussNeft: a Victim of New Putin’s Praetorians 47
YUKOS: One Year Left 49
Conclusion. Ideal Strategy of the Industry’s Development from the Putin’s Point of View. Forecast Attempt53

 

Date of publicationVolume
March 16, 200756 pages

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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