Strategy of Russian oil-and-gas companies

2006 brought complex results. Some bought up assets, obtained license and searched for aims to be delivered an attacks inside the country and abroad. Others deliberated how to defend themselves. One may consider all these things as training before 2007 year that will be significant to the sector.

Shady participants of the electoral trace are finishing the process of fund rising. That means that property redistribution is going at full drive.  The sector may be seriously renewed facing presidentional elections.

Industrial tasks are no more priority in the development strategy of the Russian companies. The key issue now is tactics of the political process participation. This may adversely affect the perspectives of oil-and-gaz production, but this doesn’t worry anyone in comparison with the problem-2008. The main task is to outlast transformation of the political system. Corporations will start thinking over new investments only after that. 

The following topics are closely analyzed in the report:

• State companies:
  how they make preparations to the final fight

  • «Gazprom» and «Rosneft» are the major actors of mergers and acquisitions in Russia.
    They are supervised by different nomenclature and political groups and they are the main aggressors. The outcome of the «successor race» may ultimately depend on their ability to grow their  capitalization
  • «Zarubezhneft»: «reserve regiment».
    The company is in the shadow now, but will «fire» in 2007 after returning to Upstream-projects in the territory of Russia
  • «Transneft» as a keeper and collector of transport asset
    Fight strategy against the Caspian pipeline syndicate and merger with «Transneftproduct». The building of new pipelines and the problem of their possible competition. North-Baltic  attack over Byelorussia and the Ukraine. The perspectives of VSTO as a rival of the European export direction

• Main intrigue of the companies’ development:
  will Putin venture to unite them of the latter half of 2007

  This is the only way with which he may create the most valuable corporation all over the world. It would become a good ground for him to go on his political and economic carrier on the international level as a global energy actor. Along with that he doesn’t know how to put this into practice without breaking his system of checks and balances among various nomenclature groups.

• Private gas companies are waiting for merger

  Despite permanent declarations about the ability of self-supporting gaz producers to provide growth of «blue-sky fuel» production, their number reduces thick and fast. «Gazprom» acquires assets. It leaves alive only those who may bring benefits to it. For example, this gives the possibility do diversify price strategies on the internal gaz market. But decline of «Gazprom`s» production and election upcoming make it not beat around the bush.

• Private oil companies

  All of them are minimizing risks in different ways.
  • «Surgutneftegaz» is on the defensive from «Rosneft» and is trying to entangle a scheme of corporative holding. Moreover, its political resources let it counterattack
  • TNK-BP is anxious about the partners in order to sell its assets correctly
  • LUKOIL doesn’t know with whom to make friends – either with «Gazprom» or «Rosneft» and it longs to integrate with Conoco.All the essential development plans are being transferred to the Eastern Europe and other international projects
  • Yukos is anxious about the possibility for its holders to receive any finances from Yukos`s liquidation
  • Bashkirian and Tatar oil and petrochemical assets are waiting for widescale fight for them

• Scenarios of oil-and-gas development before presidential elections and after them

  – according to the possible results of the «successor race»

The content of the report: