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Russian Oil & Gas in 2025: Picture of Future

Russian Oil & Gas in 2025: Picture of Future

We all want to know what the next few years have in store for the oil and gas industry. Two key approaches to the future are known, including the future of the oil and gas industry.

The first is to try and understand what, after all, awaits the industry ahead based on the current trends. The second is to design that very future. Draw a plan that has to be followed. So risks and problems can be avoided in time.

Formally, the government tries to go the second way. We are not short of documents called strategic. There is the Energy Strategy and sectoral General Schemes that are constantly expanded and rewritten. However, the industry lives its own life that is very different from the papers generated by the Energy Ministry.

The real designers of the future are the heads of the leading oil and gas corporations who pursue their own agenda proceeding from their own selfish interests. They do not put it down on paper. But we will reconstruct their plans and show what their actual design is.

The new NESF's report will give you an understanding of what forks the industry is facing and what way attempts are made to have the oil and gas industry choose.

The report elaborates on the following issues:

  • Official plans

    • Is there point in reading Russia’s Energy Strategy?
    • The reasons for the amendments, who writes it?
    • When a new version of the Strategy will be published?
    • And most importantly: why does the industry not live by it after all?
  • Sectoral documents

    • The General Schemes for the gas and oil industry development
    • The Concept of the Domestic Gas Market Development
    • What are their latest updates?
    • What ideas will be built into their new versions?
    • Will the oil and gas industries really develop according to those texts?
  • Companies’ plans: official and actual

    • Russian companies have started publishing their forecasts about the oil and gas industry development. But their actual views of what Russian oil and gas should be like are of much more interest to us. They will not write about that officially.
    • For instance, Rosneft will never admit that it intends to take over Transneft and turn itself into a sort of Oil Industry Ministry.
    • The leading players’ actual plans for the future are the centre of attention in our new research.

Contents of the report:

HOW TO LOOK INTO THE FUTURE? 3
ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA – CONTINUATION OF FORECASTING SORROWS 5
Struggle for authorship 5
Oil sector 9
Gas sector 14
GENERAL PLANS OF OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT: LOBBYISTS ARE WATCHFUL 20
CORPORATE FORECASTS 26
BACK TO THE OIL MINISTRY? 29
Struggle for LUKOIL 30
How to get back the pipeline 33
NI HAO OR OPERATION PRIVATIZATION 39
STRUGGLE FOR THE FUTURE OF THE DOMESTIC GAS MARKET AND GAS EXPORTS 43
REAL ENERGY STRATEGIES OF MAJORS 54
Date of release: December 25, 2017

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

New OPEC+ Deal and Future of Oil Business in Russia
Gazprom on the background of external and internal challenges
Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2019 and Prospects for 2020
Fiscal Policy on Oil and Gas Sector: Revised as Often as Wikipedia
The tax system in the oil and gas sector continues to undergo radical changes. The beginning of 2019 saw the introduction of a new tax regime: additional income tax. That experiment was supposed to start migration of the oil industry to an innovative principle of taxation: on profit, not revenue. It seemed that a new main road was found. In the same year, however, the Finance Ministry launched an overt offensive against AIT. The fear of loss of government revenue now is more powerful than the threat of causing oil production to collapse in the medium term because of a tax system that does not stimulate investment. The Finance Ministry would strongly prefer to speed up the tax manoeuvre completion that earns the state budget additional money. Oil and gas companies respond to this with individual lobbying, attempting to wangle special treatment for their projects.
Ukrainian Gas Hub: Climax at Hand
The “zero hour” comes in less than a month: the contracts for gas transit through Ukraine and for supplying Russian gas to the country terminate at 10 am on 1 January. Meanwhile, Gazprom and Naftogaz are very far from looking for a mutually acceptable solution. The entire European gas business is watching intently the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Everyone is waiting for a new “gas war”: the January 2009 events proved to be a serious test both to European consumers and to Gazprom as a supplier. Is there still a chance of agreement? If there is not, will Gazprom cope with its obligations to deliver gas to Europe? Is Russia bluffing as it assures that the new infrastructure and gas in underground storage facilities will enable it to get by without Ukrainian transit even as soon as this winter? What will happen to Ukraine itself at the beginning of 2020?

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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