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Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square

The Caspian Sea region and Central Asia remain in heightened focus of the EU, Russia, China and the USA. This geopolitical square is becoming more and more tangled.

On one side, we are observing development of production and pipeline projects. On the other side, political risks are rising.

This is why it is very important to figure out the region’s real production potential and the pace of implementation of transportation projects, as well as the economy of supplies and political developments.

This report analyzes progress in development of resources, problems of infrastructure and commercial relations between suppliers and buyers, as well as geopolitical aspects of struggle for Caspian gas resources.

Key topics of the report:

The region’s resource base
- The current and forecasted production level
- The real situation with development of deposits in Azerbaijan
- Development of new resources in Turkmenistan (Southern Yolotan, offshore projects), projects in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Exotica, so far: Tajikistan and Afghanistan
Transportation hopes of Europe
- Choosing the route of gas deliveries from phase 2 of Shah Deniz
- The fate of Southern Corridor and possibilities of its expansion by engaging other countries: Turkmenistan and Iraq
Russia’s pipeline response
- South Stream: success and main problems
China’s swiftly growing role in the region
- China’s "quiet expansion": China’s gradual turning into real leader in Central Asia
- Strengthening of geo-economic and political ties of Beijing and local regimes
- Projects of gas pipelines to China
Situation on sales markets
- Demand for natural gas in Southern Europe and Turkey
- Sale of assets: unsuccessful privatization of DEPA, SOCAR buying DESFA
Medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report:

Introduction	3
Chapter 1. Azerbaijan’s Choice. Failure of Nabucco, Launch of Southern Corridor to Italy	4
1.1. Production in Azerbaijan	4
1.2. Gas Marketing. Domestic Market and Exports	13
1.3. Azerbaijan-Italy Corridor. Prospects of Other Projects	16
Chapter 2. Central Asian Gas	20
2.1. Turkmenistan	21
2.2. Projects in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan	25
2.3. Gazprom in Kyrgyzstan	27
2.4. New Resources in Tajikistan and Afghanistan	28
Chapter 3. Battle of Gas Pipelines	31
3.1. Asia-China Gas Pipeline	34
3.2. Turkmenistan Changes Gas Export Policy	37
3.3. TAPI Project	38
3.4. Half-Launching Southern Corridor, Mist Around Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline	41
3.5. South Stream	43
Chapter 4. Situation on Potential Sales Markets	46
4.1. Countries in Southern Europe	46
4.2. Italy	48
4.3. Greece	49
4.1. Bulgaria	51
4.5. Turkey	52
4.6. China	55
Chapter 5. Medium-Term Forecast of Developments	59
5.1. European Direction	59
5.2. Chinese Direction	60
5.3. Indian-Pakistani Direction	61

Date of release:	October 7, 2013

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square

The region’s resource base

Transportation hopes of Europe

Russia’s pipeline response

China’s swiftly growing role in the region

Situation on sales markets

Medium-term forecast of developments

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