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War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia

War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia

The struggle between the Russian and anti-Russian pipeline projects in the South and Center of Europe becomes more and more intense. A dramatic fighting for hydrocarbons of the Caspian Sea, Central Asia and Iran, as well as the transportation routes has been in progress.

The EU keeps saying about the necessity of finding an alternative to Russia as the main supplier of hydrocarbons to the EU. The countries of the Central Asian Region are proposed to play this role. Russia answers to these moves both by promising to start exporting hydrocarbons to China and by negotiating on new joint gas and oil pipeline projects in the EU with the European companies. “The export wars” become more and more hot.

In its new report NESF studies thoroughly the following issues:

  • Future development of the gas market in Europe and the forecast of gas demand

    • Is it possible to find an alternative to the Russian gas?
    • Alleged and actual sources of hydrocarbon supplies to the EU
  • The place and role of Ukraine and Belarus as the main transit countries of the Russian hydrocarbons to the EU

    • The current condition of the gas system, and issues associated with investments, rates and “shadow” export
  • Fight for Central Asia

    • The possibility of the Kazakh oil export into the European market
    • The potential expansion of the Caspian pipeline system
    • Burgas-Alexandrupolis project as a potential long-term project
    • The Baltic export against that of the Black Sea
    • Competition for the control of the Turkmen and Uzbek gas
    • The role of the EU, China and the US
  • Russian and anti-Russian projects of oil and gas supply to the EU

    • Economic and political prospects of the new pipelines:
      • the South Stream
      • the Blue Stream
      • the White Stream
      • Nabucco
  • Future short- and mid-term scenarios

    • The possible Russia’s moves on diversification of its risks in natural gas and oil transit to the EU

 

The contents of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. How much gas Europe needs? 4
Chapter 2. Condition of the Pipeline System in Ukraine and Belarus 10
2.1. Description of the Ukrainian Gas Transport System 10
2.2. Description of the Belarusian Gas Transport System 15
2.3. Key Risks to Russian Natural Gas Transit across Ukraine and Belarus 17
Chapter 3. Russia’s Projects for the Transport of Gas to Southern and Central Europe Round Ukraine and Belarus 33
3.1. Blue Stream 33
3.2. South Stream 34
Chapter 4. Fight for Gas from Central Asia: New Risks for Russia 37
Chapter 5. Problems of Oil Export to Southern and Central Europe 48
5.1. Will There Be Enough Oil? 48
5.2. Russian and Anti-Russian Projects 49
Key conclusions 57
Date of issue July 21, 2008

 


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